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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."